The International Air Transport Association (IATA) latest passenger market report has revealed that despite an overall decline in global traffic triggered largely by the impact of the Middle East conflict, African airlines bucked the global downturn in air travel in May 2026, recording an 8.9 per cent increase in passenger demand.
The strong performance saw African carriers expand their share of the global passenger market to 2.2 per cent from 2.1 per cent a year earlier, with passenger demand outpacing capacity growth and pushing average load factors higher.
Globally, however, air passenger demand fell 2.2 per cent year-on-year, while airline capacity declined 2.3 per cent. Despite the slowdown, airlines achieved a record May passenger load factor of 83.5 per cent.
Africa Outperforms Global Market
IATA reported that African airlines recorded an 8.9 per cent year-on-year increase in passenger demand during May, while capacity expanded by 8.3 per cent.
The region’s average passenger load factor rose by 0.4 percentage points to 73.7 per cent, indicating stronger aircraft utilisation despite continued capacity expansion.
The performance contrasted sharply with the global market, where demand contracted amid geopolitical tensions and weaker domestic markets in some major economies.
Middle East Conflict Weighs on Global Traffic
According to IATA, the decline in global passenger traffic was driven primarily by disruptions caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
International passenger demand declined by 1.6 per cent year-on-year, while domestic traffic fell by 3.1 per cent
IATA Director-General Willie Walsh said airlines continued to demonstrate resilience despite elevated fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty.
“Air passenger demand was down 2.2 per cent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4 per cent year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 per cent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience”, he said.
Walsh noted that passenger demand outside the Middle East remained relatively strong, with global demand excluding the region growing by 0.7 per cent.
High Fuel Costs Continue to Pressure Airlines
While recent declines in crude oil prices offer some relief, Walsh warned that airlines remain under financial pressure as jet fuel prices have yet to fully reflect the drop in oil prices.
“Airlines operating on a two per cent profit margin have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs”, he said.
He added that uncertainty surrounding oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz could continue to affect airline operating costs in the near term.
Regional Performance
Latin American airlines recorded the strongest international growth, with passenger demand rising 10.5 per cent year-on-year, followed by African carriers at 8.9 per cent and European airlines at 3.8 per cent.
North American airlines posted a modest one per cent increase in international demand, while Asia-Pacific carriers grew by 1.3 per cent.
Middle Eastern airlines remained the worst affected by the regional conflict, recording a 28.8 per cent decline in international passenger demand despite signs that the pace of contraction is easing.
Global Load Factor Hits Record High
Despite weaker overall demand, airlines achieved a record average passenger load factor of 83.5 per cent for the month of May, reflecting continued efforts to align capacity with market demand.
Industry data showed that global passenger traffic reached five billion travellers in 2025, underscoring the aviation sector’s resilience despite geopolitical tensions, higher operating costs and persistent economic uncertainty.