The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has announced that the recovery in air travel slowed for both domestic and international in January 2022 compared to December 2021, as a result of travel restrictions impositions, following the emergence of Omicron last November.
It therefore, warned that it is returning to year-on-year traffic comparisons, instead of comparisons with the 2019 period, unless otherwise noted.
IATA noted that owing to the low traffic base in 2021, some markets will show very high year-on-year growth rates, even if the size of these markets is still significantly smaller than they were in 2019.
Total demand for air travel in January 2022 (measured in revenue passenger kilometers or RPKs) was up 82.3 per cent compared to January 2021. However, it was down 4.9% compared to the previous month (December 2021) on a seasonally adjusted basis.
January domestic air travel was up 41.5 per cent compared to the year-ago period but fell 7.2 per cent compared to December 2021 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
International RPKs rose 165.6 per cent versus January 2021 but fell by 2.2 per cent month-on-month between December 2021 and January 2022 on a seasonally adjusted basis.
“The recovery in air travel continued in January, despite hitting a speed bump called Omicron. Strengthened border controls did not stop the spread of the variant. But where population immunity was strong, the public health systems were not overwhelmed.
“Many governments are now adjusting COVID-19 polices to align with those for other endemic viruses. This includes lifting travel restrictions that have had such a devastating impact on lives, economies and the freedom to travel,” said IATA’s Director General, Willie Walsh.
International Passenger Markets
European carriers’ January international traffic rose 225.1 per cent versus January 2021, which was up slightly compared to a 223.3 per cent increase in December 2021 versus the same month in 2020. Capacity rose 129.9 per cent and load factor climbed 19.4 percentage points to 66.4 per cent.
Asia-Pacific airlines saw their January international traffic climb 124.4 per cent compared to January 2021, down significantly from the 138.5 per cent gain registered in December 2021 versus December 2020. Capacity rose 54.4 per cent and the load factor was up 14.7 percentage points to 47.0 per cent, still the lowest among regions.
Middle Eastern airlines had a 145.0 per cent demand rise in January compared to January 2021, well down compared to the 178.2 per cent increase in December 2021, versus the same month in 2020. January capacity rose 71.7 per cent versus the year-ago period, and load factor climbed 17.5 percentage points to 58.6.
North American carriers experienced a 148.8 per cent traffic rise in January versus the 2021 period, significantly decreased versus the 185.4 per cent rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. Capacity rose 78.0 per cent, and load factor climbed 17.0 percentage points to 59.9 per cent.
Latin American airlines saw a 157.0 per cent rise in January traffic, compared to the same month in 2021, an upturn over the 150.8 per cent rise in December 2021 compared to December 2020. January capacity rose 91.2 per cent and load factor increased 19.4 percentage points to 75.7 per cent, which easily was the highest load factor among the regions for the 16th consecutive month.
African airlines’ traffic rose 17.9 per cent in January 2022 versus a year ago, a slowdown compared to the 26.3 per cent year-over-year increase recorded in December 2021. January 2022 capacity was up 6.3 per cent and load factor climbed 6.0 percentage points to 60.5 per cent.
Domestic Passenger Markets
Japan’s domestic demand was up 107 per cent, which was the fastest year-on-year growth recorded, although on a seasonally adjusted basis, January 2022 traffic slipped 4.1 per cent from December.
India’s domestic RPKs fell by 18 per cent year-on-year in January , which the biggest decline recorded for any of the domestic markets tracked by IATA. On a month-on-month basis, seasonally adjusted RPKs dropped by nearly 45% between December and January.
2022/2019
Despite the strong traffic growth recorded in January 2022 compared to a year ago, passenger demand remains far below pre-COVID-19 levels. Total RPKs in January were down 49.6% compared to January 2019. International traffic was down 62.4 per cent, with domestic traffic off by 26.5 per cent.
Russia-Ukraine Conflict
January figures do not include any impact from the Russia-Ukraine conflict which began at the end of February. The resulting sanctions and airspace closures are expected to have a negative impact on travel, primarily among neighboring countries.
The Ukraine market accounted for 3.3 per cent of European passenger traffic and 0.8 per cent of global traffic in 2021.
The Russian international market represented 5.7 per cent of European traffic (excluding Russia domestic market) and 1.3 per cent of global traffic in 2021.
Airspace closures have led to rerouting or cancellations of flights on some routes, mostly in the Europe-Asia but also in Asia-North America market. This impact is mitigated owing to greatly diminished flight activity since borders in Asia were largely closed owing to COVID-19.
In 2021, RPKs flown between Asia-North America and Asia-Europe accounted for 3.0 per cent, and 4.5 per cent, respectively, of global international RPKs.
In addition to these disruptions, the sudden spike in fuel prices is putting pressure on airline costs. “When we made our most recent industry financial forecast last autumn, we expected the airline industry to lose $11.6 billion in 2022 with jet fuel at $78/barrel and fuel accounting for 20 per cent of costs.
As of 4th March, jet fuel is trading at over $140/barrel. Absorbing such a massive hit on costs just as the industry is struggling to cut losses as it emerges from the two-year COVID-19 crisis is a huge challenge. If the jet fuel price stays that high, then over time, it is reasonable to expect that it will be reflected in airline yields,” said Walsh.
The Bottom Line
“The past few weeks have seen a dramatic shift by many governments around the world to ease or remove COVID-19-related travel restrictions and requirements as the disease enters its endemic phase.
“It’s vital that this process continue and even accelerate, to more quickly restore damaged global supply chains and enable people to resume their lives. One step to encourage a return to normality is to remove mask mandates for air travel.
“It makes no sense to continue to require masks on airplanes when they are no longer being required in shopping malls, theatres or offices.
“Aircraft are equipped with highly sophisticated hospital quality filtration systems and have much higher air flow and air exchange rates than most other indoor environments where mask mandates already have been removed,” Walsh explained.